DOW, FTSE and HANGSENG are not out of the woods yet, as per the stocksweekly levels. JAPAN and INDIA are in a much better position, whereas, CHINA was already in a positive mode. India, Japan and China are buy on decline with stop losses, of course!

Traders on BSE Sensex/Nifty may go long with short term stop loss at 9275/2895 and medium term stop 8867/2778. Or one can also buy on decline near the given first levels, depending upon the market sentiment.
New stop loss for Nikkei Japan is 7760 and Shanghai China is 2202

There is some semblence of confidence in the markets and a hope of bear market rally soon. But this sentiment would depend more on the forthcoming economic data rather than technical levels, though the technical indicators also have greater significance to the traders.

The outlook of stocksweekly is still relevant. Trade accordingly!

Conficence at last!

DOW rallied 6.84% yesterday and S&P500 is said to have gained biggest in ten days, since 1938. If this would not help the confidence to return back then what else! Short term bulls would rejoice while bears would be forced to square off their weak positions. No fresh short term 'short' positions for now!

BSE/NIFTY also have broken out of the short term downtrend channel. However, the medium term has yet to turn positive, whereas the long term is unlikely to turn positive soon. Watch out for outlook and levels given in the stocksweekly and trade accordingly!

The toxic assets plan of Geithner has only been spelled out yet, but it would take some time to see if there would be any takers of this plan in the private sector. However, the biggest advantage of this big move in the U.S. markets yesterday would help bring back the confidence among the market players. The economic data, even if it turns out to be more deteriorating would not have very dampening effect in the short term. So, no short term short positions for now!
Stocksweekly is still relevant and trade accordingly!

Most of the markets have moved above their first resistance levels as per the stocksweekly. It implies that the immediate downtrend has been arrested for the moment and the recent lows are not under threat immediately. But those crucial resistances are yet to be surpassed to get lodged in a positive territory, which looks unlikely considering the lack of faith in the economic outlook all around.

The Dow surged on the fresh promise of 'printing more money' to be doled out to splurging banks. There was just a knee jerk reaction on the Dow to this news but subsequently did not impress the Asian markets this morning. In other words, the Dow may not be taken so seriously by the world markets for its knee jerk reactions until unemployment abates and the relationship between inflation and interst rate is justified besides improvement in other economic data.

The outlook in stocksweekly is still relevant. Trade accordingly!

Markets have started behaving differently. Despite a rise in Asia and Europe, Dow Jones fumbled near 7400 mark and closed flat without gains.

Overall, it has been a deserving sharp rise after so much of pessimism and downtrend. But it has to be a cautious optimism because markets are still in the downtrend mode and reversal from formidable resistances is not ruled out.

Stocksweekly is still relevant. Trade accordingly!

Still the market players look back towards those high peaks of the yesteryear and find the current price very attractive. But it would be necessary to see any business in the foresight rather than in the hindsight. Evaluate and speculate in terms of the forthcoming earnings and impending economic data.

Specifically for India, the advance tax numbers for this quarter are somewhat lesser, comparatively. It would have to be seen if this fall in earnings has already been factored into the markets. Perhaps, not fully! Another factor which hangs fire in Indian markets is the forthcoming elections. The final results are slated for 16th of May.

A hung parliament would be ominous while a single party majority (any major non-leftist party) would be a great joy for the country and its economy. The infrastructural development is just a tip of the iceberg but there are many public sector entities including banks also that await private participation which could be possible only if one single party comes into power on its own. In the given scenario, it would be prudent also to accumulate some of these stocks on decline and wait fingers crossed until May 16th.

The markets around the world have respected their lower boundaries. Profitable and weak short positions are being squared off. Dow has closed just near its 7200 levels -is a good sign for bulls. But fresh long positions at current levels would require strict stop loss because the markets are not out of the woods yet. It would have to be seen as to what kind of close we get this week. Until then the levels given in stocksweekly are relevant.

Long straddle:-buying call option and put option of a nearby strike on NIFTY in April or June series would be the best strategy at this juncture. This is not an intraday strategy. Hold it for bigger swing in either direction in days to come.
This strategy can be applied in any market according to the instruments available there.

The overstretched gloom was countered by the news from Citibank and the short covering pulled the Dow and other markets up.

One bank's "profitability" does not mitigate the problems around the world. Moreover, this rise does not change the trend to positive even in the short term until some higher levels are surpassed. Savvy traders could still initiate short trades on rise with given stop loss in the stocksweekly.

Fundamentally also, there has to be some signals of reversal in the deteriorating economic data like unemployment, housing and consumer sentiment etc. So, it has to be a cautious optimism in the days ahead.

The levels given in the stocksweekly are still relevant. Trade accordingly!

Most of the markets are almost in the oversold zone now. But they can stay there for days together also. China also could resume its downtrend after weeks of sharp uptrend which attracted the attention of investors. But things seem to be much worse worldwide including China, of course!

A wave of uptrend is envisaged soon but of lesser length. So, some of the short positions could be squared off today even if the markets have to go further down. Some could start accumulating for long term while some can buy for a very short term wave up. But it is a market of "sell on rise". Initiate fresh shorts on rise this time again. Roughly the stoploss on SENSEX/NIFTY for short positions would be 9000/2800.

Detailed outlook would be published by Sunday evening on stocksweekly!

Rate cut by RBI, a hope of some stimulus from China and some short covering in DOW and other markets could keep us buoyant today. But the confidence is too low and people are not buying. There is no change in the outlook that it still is "sell on rise" situation.
The world may be focused on the U.S. economy only but there are some talks making rounds about worst than that situation for financial institutions of some leading countries of the Europe -not less than the Iceland kind of situation. So, the things are certainly not very clear and neither is there any desire of the governments to come out with true picture. Or perhaps, even the the governments are groping in the dark!

The outlook of stocksweekly is still relevant.
But tomorrow's closing would give a better picture for the next couple of weeks.

It is a crisis of confidence which is going to stay here for quite some time. In the absence of clarity and new ideas, the markets with occasional bounces from support levels and short term rallies, could consolidate at current to lower levels in the days ahead as the crucial supports have been taken out.

BSE SENSEX closing below 8500 is a signal to remain cautious in the short to medium term. As mentioned in our stocksweekly, its 6000 level has come into the reckoning, more so if closes below 8500 on weekly basis.
The forthcoming data for this week from the U.S. would be the main trigger, which is likely to be more on the negative side. Otherwise also, there is very little chance of buying interest returning until the next earnings and the outcome of general elections' by mid May this spring.

On the NIFTY, look out for a short term bounce at 2500 levels.
The stocksweekly is still relevant. The point of emphasis is that there could be bounces from the supports from time to time but the markets are "sell on rise" until the resistances are blown off. Moreover, we are in a primary bear market, implying that the rallies are to be sold into.

Nothing has changed and it is still a "sell on rise" situation.
The stocksweekly is still relevant. Trade and invest accordingly.